An Important Win II
An Important Win II
July 10, 2026
The first or original article regarding this topic was written and posted in late April (read “An Important Win”). Here it is now almost 3 months later and it needs to be said that this is not a win, at least not yet. Remember the win criteria from the original:
- destroy the military capability
- eliminate the ability to make a nuclear weapon (any time soon, i.e., next 15 years or longer) [let’s change that to 20 years or longer]
- protect the Strait of Hormuz (or Vermouth, it’s your choice apparently depending on how you like your martini)
- support US friendly and Iranian Peoples friendly rebel groups which take over the country and establish an interim government (not sure if elections come immediately after or not but this can be a goal perhaps with a new republic and freedom-loving constitution as well)
Of course, we modern Americans expect goals to be achieved right away. Patience is often not on our attribute list. But all four of these were achievable or could have been on track to be achieved in the last 3 months. Instead, we got a bunch of nonsense about making deals when Joe/Jill public knows that a deal can not be made with any “current leadership” in Iran.
I have created, led and managed many projects over the years and when something isn’t working and there’s a chance it might still work and it is agreed that this is worth pursuing, you re-evaluate, form a new plan and go after it. The current adminstration’s new plan is just the old plan which is we’ll make a deal like we’re integrating two corporations together. What’s happened is simply nonsense so far. By the way, this process of making a deal (with sporadic threats and occasional follow-thru) has only emboldened others and given Iran and other adversaries time to prepare for further military operations which includes not just attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz but also in the Red Sea via the Houthis in Yemen. By the way, shouldn’t the Houthis be out of weapons by now given the attacks on them in hast couple of years. They don’t have any manufacturing and their supposed only supply source is Iran. Hmmm, something to ponder.
The following needs to occur aggressively to make sure 1-4 are achieved rapidly, which is very possible.
1. 25-50 strikes per day every 24 hours on offensive/defensive targets within 50 miles of Iran’s coast plus an emphasis on the area shown on the map highlighted from the red line (Iran map from MapNations) to the coast.
The strikes should never stop until all goals are achieved.
Periodically doing 100-200 strikes and then “making a deal” for a couple of weeks then lather, rinse and repeat is a waste of time.
2. The same is true for the nuclear weapons capability although maybe this may be 3-5 strikes per day on all associated facilities (storage, design, production, etc.) and access.
3. When it comes to protecting the Strait of Hormuz, see #1. Additionally, groups that hate the government, the IRGC, religious fundamentalists, have been harrassed by these entities and want more atuonomy can be supported here with resources and air/naval cover.
Thus far, there is no evidence anything is happening in this region.
Proposed tolls, threats and insults are meaningless nonsense. I repeat. See #1.
4. It is admitted that supporting groups that can establish an interim government is complex. Different groups have different goals and agendas. Recently, in the news, supposedly the Kurds in NW Iran have become more active. Let’s briefly discuss:
The Kurds have been trying to form their own state for a long time (they consider N Iraq, NW Iran and parts of SE Turkey to be their territory). They have been promised support in the past from the US in this regard but have often been left short-handed. Still, they want their own state. Can they be convinced to only accept a region within a new Iran with significant representation in a new government? This might be acceptable to other Iranian groups who might form an alliance with them. Otherwise, other such groups might be wary of an alliance with a group which wants to split off from a new Iran. Additionally, any Turkish territory or threats to its territory are off limits as Turkey is an important US ally and partner (and NATO member).
Other groups in Iran who have been suppressed, harrassed, tortured and brutalized are varied and some are supporters of Reza Pahlavi (the son of the Shah which was overthrown by the current regime over 45 years ago) as an interim president who could oversee the formation of a new government. Clearly, there will be Iranians who don’t support this effort but also don’t support the current government and IRGC. Can such groups be brought together?
There is a National Council of Resistance of Iran (National Council of Resistance of Iran – NCRI) led by Maryam Rajavi. Can the following be achieved?
- a coalition willing to accept US support to defeat the current regime and IRGC
- significant US support of this coalition (that’s on the administration and Congress)
- a working military alliance that defeats the government and IRGC
- a willingness to work together to form a government that commits to:
a. a freedom-loving constitution (with fundamental individual rights)
b. respect for the various groups in the country
c. a republic which assures that respect and protection of rights
d. a democracy that allows the people to vote for their leaders
e. working together to resolve issues with words and pens
The Iranian people stand to gain enormous benefits that improve their lives if item 4 is accomplished. Frankly, a more stable world is expected as well. We know this can be accomplished. Given what’s happened so far, I guess we shall see.
By the way, before I forget, some say this is unaffordable. What’s more unaffordable is the status quo and even more unaffordable is the status quo with a nuclear weapon.